Holiday Forecast FAQs

Which holidays does ATA forecast and when is the information released?

In addition to Thanksgiving and the winter holidays,* ATA publishes a summer (June 1 through August 31) outlook as well as a projection for the eight-day Labor Day holiday period. The forecasts are made available anywhere from two weeks prior to the start of the holiday travel period, to the first day of the period. By waiting longer, we are able to produce a more accurate forecast.

How do you determine the forecast period? Does it change over time?

ATA works with the carriers in its sample group to identify the point at which booked travel volumes start to build meaningfully and also notes the return dates for those bookings. Our forecast must be as inclusive as possible to capture an overwhelming share of those passengers who will travel as a result of the holiday.

Where can I find historical holiday-period traffic data?

There is no public source of less-than-monthly traffic data. Therefore, it is impossible to ascertain the actual amount of actual after the fact. However, ATA does collect actual traffic data for the relevant time period from a sample of five U.S. airlines. That sampling activity allows ATA to estimate the approximate amount of industry-wide traffic from a previous year. Additionally, the ability to make comparisons from one year to the next is also hindered by changes in the defined duration of the given holiday period. For example, in 2005 ATA expanded its definition of Thanksgiving holiday travel to include 12 days, up from 11 in 2004. That means that comparisons from year to year may not be valid.

Which holidays are the busiest?

ATA collects sample data from five U.S. airlines for selected holidays, focusing on the concentration of passenger volumes on particularly busy days. By that measure (i.e., number of heavily traveled days in a short time period), the most heavily traveled holidays are Thanksgiving, Easter, winter,* 4th of July, Memorial Day and Labor Day, respectively.

What is ATA’s forecast methodology and what airports and airlines are included?

Our sample group captures approximately two-thirds of U.S. airline passenger volumes, which helps us derive an industry estimate for prior-year travel. (There is no industry-wide source of actual totals.) Our forecast factors in recent traffic, capacity and macroeconomic trends and encompasses all scheduled-service traffic on all U.S. passenger airlines.

How do you define “passenger”?

Consistent with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), ATA defines a passenger as a traveler occupying a seat on an individual scheduled U.S. airline flight. For example, if the traveler’s entire journey consists of four flight legs during the specified holiday time period, that person counts as four passengers, to match the supply of seats. ATA counts total onboard passengers, including enplaned passengers and through passengers. Our estimates are meant to capture all U.S. airlines operating schedule service to and from any airport in the world. ATA does not include passengers traveling on private aircraft, non-U.S. airlines or charter flights.

Do holiday periods include non-holiday traffic?

Yes. Our forecasts include all passengers during the specified time period, irrespective of the purpose of the trip. For example, if someone departs for a business trip on the Monday after Thanksgiving, that person would be included in our forecast. Passengers do not disclose the purpose of their trips, so there is no way to discern whether a passenger is traveling for business or personal reasons.

For Thanksgiving, which days are the busiest for air travel? Slowest?

Based on 2008 data from a sample group of five airlines, the busiest days for Thanksgiving, as measured by the volume of passengers flown in scheduled service, are as follows: the Monday immediately after (#1), the Sunday immediately after (#2), the Friday immediately before (#3) and the Wednesday immediately before (#4). The two slowest days are Thanksgiving Day and the day after Thanksgiving, respectively. The difference between the busiest day and the slowest day is on the order of one million passengers. In terms of average daily load factors, sample data from 2008 showed a range of high 60s to high 80s over the 12-day span.

For the winter holidays,* which days are the busiest for air travel? Slowest?

In the 2008-2009 winter season, based on data from a sample group of five airlines, the four busiest days for air travel were Sunday, Jan. 4; Sunday, Dec. 28; Monday, Dec. 29; and Tuesday, Dec. 30. The two slowest days were Wed., Jan. 7 and Christmas Day (Dec. 25).

How much do passenger volumes differ from an average day to a peak-day? Do airlines adjust their schedules accordingly?

A peak day could see as much as double the traffic of an off-peak. Airlines do adjust their schedules within holiday periods and the variations by day can be significant.

Do your forecasts include a breakdown of travel by region? By airport?

ATA builds its forecast looking at specific regions (domestic and international). We typically, however, publish results at the “system” level only. ATA does not have forecast at the airport or city-pair level.

Why does your forecast differ from projections issued by other organizations?

From time to time, other organizations release their own travel forecasts based on their own methodology. It is important to keep in mind that each organization may define “people” or “passengers” differently. ATA also does not distinguish the nationality of passengers in its forecasts, whereas other industry organizations or media outlets often cite the number of "Americans" traveling. While ATA measures air travel only, others may include other modes of transportation, including automobile. They may also measure the holiday period using a different number of days, or even the same number of days but different start and end dates. Even if all those are aligned, the art of forecasting, by definition, means that even the best prognosticators will have different assumptions and risks built into their predictions.

Does access to military airspace help alleviate airline delays? Will you ask for it on every holiday?

Yes. Having more frequent access to military airspace, especially during holidays and at times when we face challenging weather is helpful. In congested airspace, every available relief valve helps. But freeing up military airspace alone is not the solution to reducing congestion. We must modernize our aging air traffic management system, in particular moving from radar-based systems to satellite-based technology. We also need to move quickly to implement technologies and procedures to enhance capacity at airports situated in congested parts of the country.

What can travelers expect this holiday in terms of fares? When should they purchase tickets?

ATA does not forecast fares.