Holiday Forecast FAQs

Which holidays does ATA forecast and when is the information released?

In addition to Thanksgiving and the winter holidays,* we do a combined Memorial Day and summer outlook, as well as Labor Day. The forecasts are made available anywhere from two weeks prior to the start of the holiday travel period, to the first day of the period. By waiting longer, we are able to produce a more accurate forecast.

How do you determine the forecast period? Does it change over time?

ATA works with the carriers in its sample group to identify the point at which booked travel volumes start to build meaningfully and also notes the return dates for those bookings. Over the years, evidence suggests that holiday travel patterns have broadened. Our forecast must be as inclusive as possible to capture an overwhelming share of those passengers who will travel as a result of the holiday.

Which holidays are the busiest?

ATA collects sample data from six U.S. airlines for selected holidays. Our primary focus is on the concentration of passenger volumes on particularly busy days. In recent years, the most heavily traveled dates are, in order: Thanksgiving, Easter, winter,* 4th of July, Memorial Day and Labor Day.

What is ATA’s forecast methodology and what airports and airlines are included?

Our sample group captures approximately 70 percent of industry passenger volumes, which helps derive an industry estimate for prior-year travel. Unfortunately, there is no industry-wide source of totals, so we can never know for certain the accuracy of our forecasts. Our forecast includes any scheduled-service flying on a U.S. airline to or from any airport in the world.

Do you report actual as well as forecasted numbers?

Unfortunately, the absence of less-than-monthly traffic data precludes us from knowing with certainty how many passengers actually traveled on U.S. airlines once the forecast period has concluded. However, data from our sample group allows us to make estimates as necessary.

How do you define “passenger”?

Consistent with the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), we view a passenger as a traveler occupying a seat on an individual scheduled U.S. airline flight. For example, if the traveler’s entire journey consists of four flight legs during the specified holiday time period, that person counts as four passengers, to match the supply of seats. Our estimates are meant to capture all U.S. airlines operating schedule service to and from any airport in the world. We do not include passengers traveling on private aircraft, non-U.S. airlines or charter flights.

Do holiday periods including non-holiday traffic?

Yes. Our forecasts include all passengers during the specified time period, irrespective of the purpose of the trip. For example, if someone departs for a business trip on the Monday after Thanksgiving, that person would be included in our forecast.

For Thanksgiving, which days are the busiest for air travel? Slowest?

Based on recent data from a sample group of airlines, the busiest days for Thanksgiving, as measured by the volume of passengers flown in scheduled service, are as follows: the Sunday immediately after (#1), the Monday immediately after (#2), the Friday immediately before (#3) and the Wednesday immediately before (#4). The two slowest days are Thanksgiving Day and the day after Thanksgiving, respectively.

For the winter holidays,* which days are the busiest for air travel? Slowest?

For the winter holidays,* the four busiest days for air travel are typically Jan. 2, the Friday immediately preceding Christmas (irrespective of the date), Dec. 27 and Dec. 26. The two slowest days are Christmas Day (Dec. 25) and Christmas Eve (Dec. 24), respectively.

How much do passenger volumes differ from an average day to a peak-day? Do airlines adjust their schedules accordingly?

A peak day could see as much as 30 percent more traffic than the average day, or on the order of 500 thousand to 700 thousand additional passengers. Airlines do adjust their schedules within holiday periods and the variations by day can be significant.

Do your forecasts include a breakdown of travel by region? By airport? How about load factors?

Though ATA publishes its forecast at the “system” level only, we do have the capability to break the forecast into four regions – domestic, Atlantic, Latin and Pacific. For the holidays, we do not have data by airport or by city pair. As for load factors, we believe that travelers are more interested in how busy the airports will be, rather than how full the airplanes will be.

Why does your forecast differ from projections issued by other organizations?

From time to time, other organizations release their own travel forecasts. It is important to keep in mind that each organization may define “people” or “passengers” differently. While ATA measures air travel only, others may include other modes of transportation, including automobile. They may also measure the holiday period using a different number of days, or even the same number of days but different start and end dates. Even if all those are aligned, the art of forecasting, by definition, means that even the best prognosticators will have different assumptions and risks built into their predictions.

Does access to military airspace help alleviate airline delays? Will you ask for it on every holiday?

Yes. Having more frequent access to military airspace, especially during holidays and at times when we face challenging weather is helpful. In congested airspace, every available relief valve helps. But freeing up military airspace alone is not the solution to reducing congestion. We must modernize our air traffic management system, in particular moving from radar-based systems to satellite-based technology. We also need to move quickly to implement technologies and procedures to enhance capacity at airports situated in congested parts of the country.

What can travelers expect this holiday in terms of fares? When should they purchase tickets?

ATA neither collects nor forecasts fares. We have historical data on passenger yield (fares per mile), but not specific to holiday periods.